Sergei Medvedev, 56, reviews the most important periods in Russia’s history from 1654 to 2023. The historian took part in the debate on May 10: “Is the invasion of Ukraine a “new event” or is it close? Related to the history of Russia?”, organized by the media NGO Pressclub Concordia in Vienna, which was also broadcast online.
Imperial Russia
The historian pointed out that Russia took the first steps towards becoming an empire as early as 1654.
Residents of Zaporozhye, a historical region in present-day central Ukraine, signed a treaty with Russian Tsardom for support against the Poles. However, the Zaporozhian Cossacks did not get the independence they had hoped for, but ended up under the domination of the Russians. Seven decades later, in 1721, Russia officially became an empire.
“The guilt and responsibility of the Russians goes back centuries,” the Russian historian said of Russia’s potential for political and social change. “Change always comes from outside. It is not capable of starting a revolution from within,” he added.
Medvedev, an adjunct professor at Charles University in Prague who specializes in political history, fled his home country in March 2022, weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine. Currently, he is a scholarship holder at the University of Helsinki and a presenter at Radio Europa Libera.
His most recent book on Russia, “The Return of the Russian Leviathan. A Culture of Violence and the Obsession of Imperialism,” was published by Polity Press in Cambridge and has been translated into 12 languages, including Romanian.
“Putin has World War III on his mind right now.
Medvedev answered many questions from those in the hall. If it ever gets to that point, how long will it take for Russia to change? He wanted to know a journalist from one of Austria’s most popular publications, the Eurosceptic tabloid “Kronen Zeitung”.
“I don’t know how long it will last. How long did it take to rebuild Germany? It took 70 years to dismantle the legacy of fascism. For Russia, it may take longer. We are not only talking about the period under Putin, but the entire imperial period. We are currently discussing Mariupol (a city in the south-east of Ukraine, occupied by the Russians in 2022, no) but not Aleppo – tens of thousands of lives were lost in Syria after the military crimes of the Russians”, added Medvedev.
Almost four centuries have passed since the Russians broke the treaty with the Zaporozhians, the historian also explained, and he also showed that during that period, Russia became a dominant power in this place for the first time. He also recalled what Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former security adviser to US President Jimmy Carter, said a few years ago: “Russia can no longer be an empire without Ukraine.”
Medvedev compared Putin’s intentions to those of Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, who started World War II when he invaded Poland in 1939. “In Putin’s Mind, World War III Is Now Underway.”
Putin wants America and China to be on the same platform
Historian Vladimir Putin sees his country as one of the modern world’s greatest powers, and it’s important for the Kremlin leader to be on stage with the US and China. Therefore, Medvedev believes, he is not only fighting for Ukraine, but continuing the conflict with the West.
It has no military power, but it has the power of fear, confusion and destruction. He wants to destroy the electricity market, for example.
“Russia needs to be watched by the White House. This is childish behavior.”
The Russian historian presented three scenarios of the future of Russia, which have been circulated so far, against the background of the war in Ukraine.
The first of these: the current Russian system will continue regardless of the outcome of the war, with or without Putin.
The possibility of a breakup of the country after Putin’s defeat in Ukraine has also continued to be discussed over the past year. However, Medvedev came up with counterarguments: “It’s not like the Soviet Union broke up. They were countries with their own identity, had a history of independence.”
A third scenario, which he calls “impossible,” relates to the transformation of the country under the leadership of Vladimir Putin. That would require several steps: Russia’s Kremlin leader should be tried at The Hague to give up nuclear weapons and “imperialist thinking.”
“We must finish what started in 1945. There were two totalitarian dictatorships, one was only defeated and the other was temporarily aligned with the West,” he said, adding that economic sanctions against Russia have not yet stopped the war.
Questions continued from the room: “If Russia had succeeded in taking over Ukraine in a few days, do you think they would have stopped?”, a reporter wanted to know his opinion. From Spanish news agency EFE.
“Russia would not have stopped, Moldova would have been next on the list. This would have been in 2014. Putin was not satisfied with Crimea alone,” the historian replied.
Another was interested in Putin’s strategy for the US presidential election. “In everything it does, Russia wants to be noticed by the White House. This is childish behavior. Putin believes that Trump will return to the White House in 2024 and that the United States will no longer support Ukraine,” Sergey Medvedev concluded.
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